Adilbek Baishigashev | 01.11.2024
How will the US presidential election affect the global economy?
On November 5, the US presidential elections will be held, where Vice President Kamala Harris from the Democratic Party will face off against former president Donald Trump from the Republican Party. Everyone knows that these elections have a huge role on the global economy and other global situations in the world. How will each candidate influence on the global economy and what to expect from the United States after the upcoming elections?
Kamala Harris is likely to continue diplomatic and multilateral engagement, which will include:
• Climate cooperation: Harris could work actively with other countries on international agreements like the Paris Agreement. This could encourage other countries to also invest in a green economy, which would impact the demand and price of oil and gas, lowering the cost of fossil fuels in the long run.
• Strengthening international alliances and trade agreements: Harris would likely
strengthen ties with allies like the European Union and expand trade agreements with Asia to build sustainable supply chains and reduce economic dependence on China. This would increase trade between democracies, support economic growth in those regions, and provide an opportunity to adopt higher environmental and labor standards.
• Policy toward China and other developing countries: Kamala Harris could continue to cautiously compete with China, but may prefer to resolve conflicts diplomatically, avoiding harsh sanctions and tariffs. This will avoid tensions and reduce economic uncertainty in the markets.
Overall, Kamala Harris will continue the current President Joe Biden's course in terms of social and economic reforms, making minor changes. Harris's policy, focused on sustainable development and multilateral cooperation, can create relatively stable conditions for the global economy, promoting long-term investment in sustainable technologies and ensuring a predictable foreign policy.
If Donald Trump is elected president again, his economic policies will likely remain
focused on tax cuts, deregulation, and protectionism.
• Tax cuts and deregulation: Trump may continue to cut taxes for corporations and
individuals, which will stimulate short-term economic growth by increasing corporate profits and employment. However, this may also increase the country's already fragile national debt (the country's national debt is $35 trillion).
• Fossil energy support: Trump may lift some environmental restrictions and support oil, coal, and gas production, which is good for the traditional energy industry, but contradicts the trend towards a "green"; economy. The United States will likely increase oil and gas exports, which may affect energy prices. Also, a possible agreement with Saudi Arabia to increase production could greatly affect the OPEC+ energy industry.
• Tough trade policies and tariffs: Trump will likely continue to impose tariffs on
imports from countries he views as competitors, such as China. This could lead to trade wars that affect global supply chains and increase production costs worldwide.
• Skepticism about international unions: Trump may reconsider US participation in some international organizations, such as NATO or the WTO, or cut financial aid to developing countries. This will reduce US influence in global political and economic processes, creating a vacuum that China or other countries could fill.
• Pressure on Europe and China: Trump will likely pressure the EU on trade issues and the protection of US technology, as well as China, limiting its influence. This could cause regional economic and political tensions.
Trump’s policies could lead to short-term instability in global markets due to abrupt changes in trade terms and sanctions. Increased tariffs and trade restrictions could disrupt supply chains and raise prices for global producers, particularly affecting export-oriented countries.
In conclusion, under a Kamala Harris presidency, the global economy could see the
growth of green technologies and stable multilateral cooperation, which would promote predictable and more sustainable development, while under a Donald Trump presidency, the global economy could face protectionism and rising tariffs, which would reduce predictability and could lead to disruption of global supply chains. In general, the global economy should not face major upheavals, because contrary to established stereotypes, the vectors of management decisions in the United States do not change radically with the arrival of a new president.
Kamala Harris is likely to continue diplomatic and multilateral engagement, which will include:
• Climate cooperation: Harris could work actively with other countries on international agreements like the Paris Agreement. This could encourage other countries to also invest in a green economy, which would impact the demand and price of oil and gas, lowering the cost of fossil fuels in the long run.
• Strengthening international alliances and trade agreements: Harris would likely
strengthen ties with allies like the European Union and expand trade agreements with Asia to build sustainable supply chains and reduce economic dependence on China. This would increase trade between democracies, support economic growth in those regions, and provide an opportunity to adopt higher environmental and labor standards.
• Policy toward China and other developing countries: Kamala Harris could continue to cautiously compete with China, but may prefer to resolve conflicts diplomatically, avoiding harsh sanctions and tariffs. This will avoid tensions and reduce economic uncertainty in the markets.
Overall, Kamala Harris will continue the current President Joe Biden's course in terms of social and economic reforms, making minor changes. Harris's policy, focused on sustainable development and multilateral cooperation, can create relatively stable conditions for the global economy, promoting long-term investment in sustainable technologies and ensuring a predictable foreign policy.
If Donald Trump is elected president again, his economic policies will likely remain
focused on tax cuts, deregulation, and protectionism.
• Tax cuts and deregulation: Trump may continue to cut taxes for corporations and
individuals, which will stimulate short-term economic growth by increasing corporate profits and employment. However, this may also increase the country's already fragile national debt (the country's national debt is $35 trillion).
• Fossil energy support: Trump may lift some environmental restrictions and support oil, coal, and gas production, which is good for the traditional energy industry, but contradicts the trend towards a "green"; economy. The United States will likely increase oil and gas exports, which may affect energy prices. Also, a possible agreement with Saudi Arabia to increase production could greatly affect the OPEC+ energy industry.
• Tough trade policies and tariffs: Trump will likely continue to impose tariffs on
imports from countries he views as competitors, such as China. This could lead to trade wars that affect global supply chains and increase production costs worldwide.
• Skepticism about international unions: Trump may reconsider US participation in some international organizations, such as NATO or the WTO, or cut financial aid to developing countries. This will reduce US influence in global political and economic processes, creating a vacuum that China or other countries could fill.
• Pressure on Europe and China: Trump will likely pressure the EU on trade issues and the protection of US technology, as well as China, limiting its influence. This could cause regional economic and political tensions.
Trump’s policies could lead to short-term instability in global markets due to abrupt changes in trade terms and sanctions. Increased tariffs and trade restrictions could disrupt supply chains and raise prices for global producers, particularly affecting export-oriented countries.
In conclusion, under a Kamala Harris presidency, the global economy could see the
growth of green technologies and stable multilateral cooperation, which would promote predictable and more sustainable development, while under a Donald Trump presidency, the global economy could face protectionism and rising tariffs, which would reduce predictability and could lead to disruption of global supply chains. In general, the global economy should not face major upheavals, because contrary to established stereotypes, the vectors of management decisions in the United States do not change radically with the arrival of a new president.
